Forex Trading - Commodity Prices And The Dollar

We all know that prices of certain products and goods have reached the highest levels ever. Most people notice that every day excursion to a gas station. Four dollar a gallon gasoline certainly draws attention. Everyone is well aware of the fact that it has reached USD low never seen before, against most other currencies. Financial Press is quick to point it out. What is not immediately noticeable is the connection between physics two. Most commodities are priced in dollars. The grains, metals, both precious and industrial, softs (sugar, cocoa, coffee, etc. ). And the energy complex, was cited at all USD. If it surprise anyone that serious weakness or strength in dollars should be reflected to some extent in commodity prices. And that is without taking supply and demand under consideration. We will use the CRB index as a proxy for commodities. We are using continues CRB Index, instead of CRB futures values, because there are more looking back data are available. On the side of the dollar, U. S. Dollar Index is used, instead of a single currency pair. The data is both easily accessible from numerous sources. After years of steady decline, U. S. Dollar Index has recently made a new low only under71. 00. During these past few weeks have seen a modest rally that took the index to around 74. 00. This is most impressive run in over a year, and more interesting, weekly chart appears to be building a high probability of reversal pattern. The next step is to see this period go over 78. 00, confirming the trend indicators reversal. Continues CRB has been upward within a few years. Ultima rally has been gathering speed, reaching 580. 00, the biggest monthly and weekly price moves ever. This chart is a good example of a parable price developments, it is untenable for much longer, if not over already. This index may be likely in the early stages of the main topping pattern. It should be noted that these two indices are not strictly speaking the amounts of their respective parties. All components are weighted according to importance assigned to them by index creators. For example, within CRB Index, the energy complex is the most influential, while Crude Oil is the largest individual component. This is important at the current time, because energy is still at prices ever higher, while most other commodities have experienced substantial sell-offs over recent weeks. That includes grains and precious metals. The index is showing signs of weakness despite the fact that its main component remains a while high. Analyzing indicators CRB is not likely to be very useful for a very short-term forex. However, if you're looking for an address longer-term confirmation, this index can be a very useful tool. At the time of this writing, in early May 2008, CRB Index, together with U. S. Dollar Index, indicates the happy times of dollars.

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